Coronavirus modelers in wonderland

  1. Human behavior must be restricted to whatever degree is necessary to reverse the natural tendency of respiratory viruses to spread especially during the winter. Remeber the winter cause it will come back.
  2. The harsher and harsher restrictions must be in place until a vaccine is widely available.

The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures

  1. It is not consistent, it is much lower, and astronomically far away from your “95%” confidence band.
  2. The blue line is the prediction for the continuation of house arrest for the whole population, who could only get out to work in essential businesses and buy groceries.

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